A Jersey "Drone" Coverage Critique
The dull blade of Occam's Razor.
Free your mind
And the rest will follow
(“Free Your Mind,” performed by En Vogue)
Almost as interesting as the events occurring in the New Jersey skies is how the American media covers it. The progression in reporting has moved at a glacial speed and restrained by whatever angle or slant is slapped on. Corporate media started by reporting in the way they do a local human-interest story. Some folks in New Jersey are seeing drones in the sky flying over their homes at night: here are some social media posts we found. As the story gained momentum, prompting government officials and pundits to move center stage, the television coverage splintered into stories framed by various ideological interests.
It’s embarrassing that the government doesn’t who these drones belong to.
The Pentagon knows what these drones are and is lying to the American people.
The drones belong to Russia, and this is all about the Ukraine war.
The drones in New Jersey are a good opportunity to talk about America being far behind Russia and China in drone technology.
These drones actually belong to the American military.
It’s Iran. They have a mothership off the coast where the drones launch from.
Occam’s Razor
While considering a problem or weighing competing possibilities, the principle of Occam’s Razor argues that the simplest explanation is typically the best one. That may be an appropriate investigative paradigm for some situations, like trying to locate missing car keys or contemplating the cause of your syphilis when you recently had a one-night stand. It falls short here, with too many variables and too many people allowing personal bias to distort their identification of the simplest explanation. For advocates of aggressive foreign policy, the simplest explanation is Russia, Iran or China. Proponents of smaller government assume authorities are lying about not knowing the source of the drones, or believe they belong to the U.S. and the Pentagon is conducting a psychological operation. If you generally trust in institutions, you might conclude the military is testing new technology or utilizing existing drones to keep Americans safe.
So much of the coverage has been guided by these preconceived notions, which in turn has restricted what information or events are presented during a news segment. It is akin to trying to figure out what is on your front lawn by staring through your peephole for hours when you should just open the damn door.
Opening the door allows for a proper consideration of scope and duration.
Scope
Any reporter, anchor, or pundit still talking only about New Jersey is most definitely leaning against the door, eye glued to the peephole. Sightings are happening throughout the eastern seaboard, including places like New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland and Washington D.C. Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Ohio experienced incursions over the weekend. 1
The sprawling Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Ohio is the latest military installation to report mysterious drones flying over its airspace, The War Zone has learned.
“I can confirm small aerial systems were spotted over Wright-Patterson between Friday night and Saturday morning,” base spokesman Bob Purtiman told The War Zone on Sunday in response to our questions about the sightings. “Today leaders have determined that they did not impact base residents, facilities, or assets. The Air Force is taking all appropriate measures to safeguard our installations and residents.”
The drones “ranged in sizes and configurations,” Purtiman said. “Our units are working with local authorities to ensure the safety of base personnel, facilities, and assets.”
After the drones were seen over Wright-Patterson, a Notice To Airman (NOTAM) was issued closing the airspace between Friday night and Saturday morning. The airspace has since been reopened, Purtiman said.
Some of the other military installations purportedly affected include Dover Air Force Base (Delaware), Picatinny Arsenal and Fort Dix (New Jersey), Barksdale Air Force Base (Louisiana), and Hill Air Force Base (Utah). It ranges as far west as Camp Pendleton in Oceanside, California.
The above is not a complete accounting for the full scope of the phenomenon because it appears to be international. Incursions were reported near or over U.S./U.K. military bases in England (RAF Lakenheath, RAF Mildenhall and RAF Feltwell). Incidents were also documented at Ramstein Air Base in Germany. It may not even be confined to America and allied nations: unconfirmed reports have sightings in adversarial nations like China and Russia.
Duration
While the New Jersey sightings have been going on for a month, we should expand the timeline to include comparable incidents from the past. Some of those events include:
2023
Langley Air Force Base in Virginia reported drone incursions in December of last year. 2
2019-2020
A series of drone sightings were reported in late 2019 and early 2020 in Colorado. 3
2019
In 2021, Jeremy Corbell released footage taken by U.S. military personnel, which show UFO’s (at least 100, reportedly) over Naval warships off the California coast in 2019. 4 Government officials would later confirm the incident but characterize it as a “drone swarm.”
Finally, as Micheal Keaton might say:
1965
Mysterious objects with red and green flashing lights were reported in the area of Francis E. Warren Air Force Base (Cheyenne, Wyoming).
Theory Filtering
Much of the speculation being offered is unlikely in and of itself, like the claim that the military is deploying drones to “sniff out” a nuclear weapon. If the Pentagon had intel confirming the presence of a lost or rogue nuclear weapon somewhere on the East Coast, would they really have allowed President-elect Trump to attend the Army vs. Navy game in Maryland?
So maybe that’s not the best refutation.
Still, there remain questions about the loose nuke theory, like the utility of drones in this scenario or why they would only fly them a few hours a day if the situation was truly this dire. The speculation grows more unrealistic when you add scope and duration to the analysis. Does the Pentagon believe someone stole a nuclear weapon and chose to hide it on…a U.S. military base?
Scope and duration undermine most suggestions about the origin of the “drones.” Would China commit such a provocative and overt act like deploying drones in plain sight and across densely populated areas throughout the United States every night for a month? Could Russia have the logistical capability and the will to conduct a multi-national (and multi-continent) drone operation while simultaneously waging a war with Ukraine? The United States typically tests new technology discreetly in isolated or restricted areas. Why expose experimental technology to the eyes of its citizens (and potentially adversaries) by flying it over metropolitan areas for weeks at a time?
We shouldn’t completely rule out these possibilities. With so many unknowns, there’s no value in prematurely discarding relevant options. In fact, the media should cast a wider net by avoiding two assumptions that are undermining much of the reporting.
1. There is a singular actor responsible for the objects in the air.
One likely scenario is that observers are witnessing objects of unknown origin as well as U.S. assets tasked to monitor those objects of unknown origin.
2. All the objects are drones.
It doesn’t matter if the emphasis on calling the objects drones came out of convenience or was done deliberately to portray them as more pedestrian. There are a variety of objects being captured on video or described by witnesses, and we can’t be certain that all or even some are conventional drones (or exclusively unmanned). There are reports (including from local police and military installations) suggesting some of these objects are demonstrating atypical capabilities.
Game of Drones
In the television series “Game of Thrones,” the threat that the White Walkers and their army of the dead pose for the people of Westeros is explored heavily throughout the story: it’s a dynamic incorporated more consistently than even its legendary gratuitous female nudity. (The frequency of nude scenes really drops off in the later seasons which, coincidentally, are also the worst reviewed seasons.)
The conflict intensifies in season 7 as Jon Snow struggles to convince two competing Queens (despot, not drag) that this supernatural threat is real. Snow finally concludes that his only recourse is to capture one of the dead to provide physical proof of the phenomenon.
This dilemma isn’t unique to Westeros. Most media content surrounding the Jersey drone story is downplaying or ignoring claims of extraordinary performance capabilities exhibited by some of the observed objects, including:
Operating silently.
Operating without generating heat.
An ability to “go dark” when approached by other objects.
Immune to typical drone detection equipment. Not transmitting RF signals and not trackable with FLIR (Forward Looking Infared).
Demonstrating unconventional speed and evasive maneuvering when confronted by other objects.
If only the Pentagon would cosplay as Jon Snow by bringing down one of these objects to provide visual confirmation of what it is. That’s what many residents and local authorities in New Jersey have been lobbying for. Shoot one down! Why hasn’t the military done so? They either are unwilling, already have but won’t make it public, or they simply aren’t able to because the whispers about these performance abilities is true.
There’s a percentage of the population that will refuse to even contemplate the above without tangible evidence. Instead, they are content with making superficial cuts into this mystery, courtesy of that dull blade from Occam’s Razor:
It’s just amateurs, hobbyists and drones they picked up at Walmart or 7-Eleven.
Everyone is simply misidentifying airplanes.
Granted, there are mistaken sightings and those have undoubtedly increased after the situation went viral. That doesn’t mean everyone suddenly forgot what a plane looks like in their neighborhood, or that seasoned observers (active military, veterans, police, etc.) instantly evolved into blank slate witnesses, devoid of past training and experience.
No, this isn’t mass hysteria. Wright-Patterson didn’t shut down its airspace because of hysteria. A medical helicopter in New Jersey didn’t turn around, abandoning its attempt to render aid for an accident victim because of hysteria. 5
If there is a social contagion that’s cause for concern, we can call it Westeros-19. Symptoms include an inability to entertain the improbable.
Wow, who could have anticipated that the Daily Wire guys would lack epistemic humility when discussing an issue.
Monday marked the 7th anniversary of the New York times article that revealed a secret Pentagon UFO program. 6 What followed was a more serious national dialogue regarding UAP (Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon, now known as Unidentified Anomalous Phenomenon); credible whistleblowers, Congressional hearings, Pentagon confirmation for the authenticity of leaked UFO footage, and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer authoring UAP legislation that included references to non-human intelligence.
You don’t have to believe in aliens or the presence of a non-human intelligence. After the developments over the last seven years, we should be able to at least acknowledge the possibility of anomalous performance from some of these objects and potentially anomalous behavior, as demonstrated by this event and similar events over the years. Refusing to even do that?
Well, that’s just extra stupid.
Featured Content:
https://speaktruthtoflour.substack.com/t/featured
“Drone Incursions Closed Wright-Patterson Air Force Base’s Airspace Friday Night,” Howard Altman, The WarZone, December 16, 2024.
https://www.twz.com/air/drone-incursions-closed-wright-patterson-air-force-bases-airspace-friday-night
“Mystery drones flew over US base,” Joe Khalil, NewsNation, October 15, 2024
https://www.newsnationnow.com/space/ufo/mystery-drones-us-base/#:~:text=Air%20Force%20officials%20confirmed%20several,attention%20of%20President%20Joe%20Biden.
“Drone sightings in New Jersey show a lot of similarities to mystery drones seen in eastern Colorado in 2020,” Marc Sallinger, December 13, 2024
https://www.9news.com/article/news/local/next/next-with-kyle-clark/similarities-drone-sightings-in-new-jersey-and-colorado/73-8a6f4a35-eda7-4d9d-a34c-2860f4ae2b8f
Josh Boswell and Chris Sharp, The Daily Mail, June 27, 2022
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10939579/Naval-crew-confirm-warships-swarmed-100-worldly-UFOs.html
“Mystery drones flying over NJ kept helicopter from taking patient to hospital, college says,” Patrick Reilly, New York Post, December 05, 2024
https://nypost.com/2024/12/05/us-news/mystery-drones-flying-over-nj-kept-helicopter-from-taking-patient-to-hospital-college-says/
“Glowing Auras and ‘Black Money’: The Pentagon’s Mysterious U.F.O. Program,” Helene Cooper, Ralph Blumenthal, and Leslie Kean, The New York Times, December 16, 2024
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/16/us/politics/pentagon-program-ufo-harry-reid.html